The end's not near, it's here. The UEFA Champions League final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea marks the culmination of the European season, as the competition draws to its annual conclusion at 7.45PM this Saturday. It ain't going quietly. Some 62,000 fans will pack out the Fußball Arena München for the 2012 showpiece finale, a figure likely to be dwarfed by the number of fans tuning in to televisions worldwide (estimated viewing figures for the 2011 final were "in excess of 300 million" according to UEFA spokesman Kimmo Bellmann). From Brazil to Beijing, the world will be watching this weekend. Don't believe the hype? We've barely scratched the surface.
In the England corner, Chelsea have hardly emerged as the people's choice for their national representative. Dogged by amateur dramatics and an alarming crisis of confidence that saw the club stumble out of the title race, the Londoners's season was expected to enter freefall after Villas-Boas was jettisoned in March. More lily-livered than lion-hearted, the team certainly showed little of 'the stuff of champions' in their 3-1 defeat by Napoli in the opening leg of the last-16, and few tears would have been shed if the club had bowed out in the first knock-out round. Enter Di Matteo. The 4-1 reverse at Stamford Bridge secured a 5-4 win on aggregate to secure Chelsea a berth in the quarter finals, in which Benifca were clinically dispatched 3-1 on aggregate over the course of the two legs. For his next trick, Di Matteo pulled out a victory so remarkable Gary Neville effectively exploded with excitement on national television - an unattractive end to an enthralling encounter between Barcelona and Chelsea. The 2-2 draw at the Camp Nou secured Chelsea a 3-2 victory over the two legs, and with it their progression into the Champions League Final. Matteo may not be the Messiah, but Chelsea's transformation from zeroes to passable heroes has been something of a minor miracle.
Weighing in for Germany, it remains to be seen which Bayern will show up on Saturday. The German giants have swung from the sublime to the sub-par in recent weeks: their defeat of Real Madrid 3-1 on penalties (3-3 on aggregate after e/t) was well earned, after a fine display in the second leg - only for the Bavarians to collapse to a 5-2 defeat to league champions Borussia Dortmund in the German Cup fianl last weekend. Bayern's fluctuating form has left president Uli Hoeness scratching his head, as he admitted "Maybe a bit a of humility is not the worst thing at the moment". He may have a point. Bayern's dressing room may even outsize Chelsea's for over-inflated egos - Robben and Ribery had to be dragged apart after an on pitch argument nearly came to blows in their semi-final's first leg, the two wingers apparently unable to decide which of them was better suited to striking the ball agonisingly past the post for the seventeenth time.
Ominously, the pair's simmering stroppery has done little to dampen their electric performances in the past. Both emerged for the second-half against Madrid, and combined at times to run concentric rings around Arbeloa and Marcelo in the second leg. The attacking talent at Bayern's disposal should test Chelsea's defence to its limits, and it remains to be seen how the respective hamstrings of the recently recovered Luiz and Cahill cope with Bayern's wing-play. Through the centre, Mario Gomez is an exceptionally effective centre forward, contributing 41 goals in all competitions this season. The striker's aerial prowess should occupy, if not overly concern, a Chelsea back line who at times appear lethargic from set-pieces.
Meanwhile, at the club's fulcrum, the imperious Schweinsteiger will look to dominate proceedings. The German international was excellent against Chelsea when the clubs met in the 2005 quarter-finals, although the midfielder was ultimately ouclassed by a Frank Lampard in his prime. The Englishman scorred three goals over the two legs, including a perfectly executed volley on a six-pence that exuded class (track it down on YouTube - it's pretty great). Yet time has done a number on the legs of Lamps, whilst Schweinsteiger, now 27, is arguably at his peak. If the Reds are to play to their dynamic best, it will come as little surprise to see Schweinsteiger driving the Bayern engine.
In light of this, Chelsea will sorely miss the presence of Ramires in their midfield. Adjectives such as 'tireless' and 'energetic' to the Brazilian a disservice - his outstanding contribution in the Barcelona tie capped a breakthrough season for the former Benifca man - and his suspension for the final deprives Chelsea of a player capable of such a total contribution that John Terry's absence was at times barely noticed. The club captain joins a lengthy absentee list which also includes Ivanovic and Raul Mereiles, whilst Bayern's Luiz Gustavo, David Alaba and Holger Badstuber will also miss the through suspension. Chelsea's MIA list is perhaps the more significant, but there are weaknesses to be exposed in Bayern's losses. Daniel van Buyten is also unlikely to make Saturday's game following a foot injury, and a defence that has conceded just 22 goals this season is sure to suffer from the enforced rotation. Anatoliy Tymoshchuk, nominally a midfielder, is likely to deputise. At just over 5'11", the Ukranian is sure to receive particular attention from Didier Drogba in what may well be the striker's last competitive appearance in a Chelsea shirt.
Bayern's European pedigree means there is little chance of a repeated wretched performance in the mould of last Saturday's. The final will be played at Bayern's home ground, in their home city, in front of their home fans. Motivation is hardly likely to be an issue. Yet Chelsea's Lazarus act may yet spring one more surprise. Few would have fancied Di Matteo's chances following his interim appointment, but Chelsea's success in the FA Cup has made more than a few doubters sit up and take notice. Villas-Boas's unfortunate dismissal now seems a blessing in disguise - and blessings in disguises evidently win prizes. Whether the Italian has done enough to secure the job in the long run remains unclear, with few answers forthcoming from the board room. Regardless, the club's resurgence under their interim manager has been remarkable, and he has earned his shot at glory on Saturday evening. . Hoping for a miracle? Not likely. Chelsea believe, at last, that they have every chance of wrapping their hands around the Champions League trophy. One way or another, the season is sure to go out with a bang.
Bayern are unarguably superior up top and in midfield - in fact their strength is terrifying. Having said that, Boateng and Tymoshchuk at the back against a rampaging Drogba? I'm tempted to say the relative weakness of each sides backline mean goals aplenty, but previous finals don't back that up.
ReplyDeleteIt'll probably be 1-0, and I get that feeling, as I did when Bayern hit the crossbar against United in the 98/99 final to miss the chance of going two up, that is is just written in the stars. Chelsea, and Drog, to win.
This is such an interesting final. For me, it could go one of two ways. Part of me agrees that it will be a tight affair, and that will suit Chelsea unless it goes to penalties (in which case the Germans will OBVIOUSLY win).
ReplyDeleteYet a different side of me is saying Bayern are going to win relatively comfortably. Chelsea beat Barca with a superb defensive display, yet they a) had a lead to protect, and b) in my opinion, have a team which is actually better equipped to deal with Barca's attack, than Bayern's. Don't get me wrong, Barca's attack is potent enough to break down any team, and I think we can all agree that for all the plaudits Chelsea's defence deservedly received that night, a fair share of luck also went their way. Lady Luck aside, I believe Chelsea were able to deal with Barca's threat because they are fairly well suited to doing so. Their defence is not the fastest, but it was organised and full of heart on the night, and in the end that was enough to successfully let Barca ticky-tacky their way into blue shirts in the final third.
Bayern offer a completely different threat, and Chelsea are without Terry, Ivanovic and Ramires. The Germans will attack like it's 1940: with speed and efficiency. With Chelsea's absentees, and without a lead to defend, I'm not sure if positionally (*cough* Luiz *splutter* Bosingwa) Chelsea will have the capability to deal with Bayern's blitz-like counter-attacks.
It wouldn't be the first time London has defied the odds in the face of a German force undoubtedly superior to its own. Yet I can't see lightening striking twice tomorrow. Her Majesty's were on home turf, and had Churchill. Chelsea will be in Munich, and their talisman will be watching from the stands. Pretty sure that's all of the World War II references I could have possibly got in.
Then again, it's football and nothing would surprise me Geoff *sips pint*. 3-1 Bayern, but maybe with a tiny weensy pinch of Lillywhite salt thrown in.