Thursday 31 May 2012

Euro 2012: Fantasy Football Tips and Tactics

The Euros are fast approaching. The squads have now been confirmed, and pre-tournament prattle is sweeping the nation, dominating the topic of conversation from schoolyards to pub gardens.

Controversial questions are being asked of various selection policies, and to pick one at complete random, it appears that Stewart Downing’s inclusion in the England squad has become a hot topic of debate. Personally, I feel that this statement represents the biggest oxymoron since the inception of the ‘Democratic People's Republic of Korea’. Words like ‘controversy’ and ‘debate’ imply that there is more than one logical opinion to be held. There isn’t. Stewart Downing isn’t that good at playing football for Liverpool. He has produced one assist (against Oldham) and no goals all season. Chances are, therefore, that the trend will continue into the European Championships, and that he won’t be that good at playing football for England.

Enter fantasy football. Interestingly enough, it appears that a rather large portion of football fans are in agreement with the outlandish suggestion I have just made. No less than 99.5% of those who have enrolled in this tournament’s fantasy football league have chosen not to include Stewart in their midfield. Now I’m not saying that the .5% are wrong, more that they are really stupid and don’t know anything about football. And are wrong.

Herein lies the crux of fantasy football’s appeal. It’s a chance for the fat bloke in the pub to put his money where his mouth is, and a chance for people like me, who think they know loads about football because they’ve pretty much completed football manager 05, to show their worth. Well, if you’re asking, I led Spurs to 32 league titles in a row, had a transfer budget of 800 million, and won about 15 European trophies. Thanks very much.

What better way to ensure that the countless hours spent pursuing various facets of the beautiful game have not gone to waste, than to dominate the world of fantasy football? League tables don’t lie, and here we have a chance to transform our knowledge into tangible evidence, and thus gain authority amongst our peers in the highly competitive world of backseat football punditry.

How does one go about doing this? You adhere to the following advice, brought to you by the man who has just seen the retirement of his assistant manager David Beckham, at the tender age of 68.

Nick’s tips and tactics: (In reference to the official UEFA fantasy football tournament - http://en.euro2012fantasy.uefa.com/)

Base your initial selections on the varying strength of the groups:

This should govern all of your initial picks, especially as you will have a chance to adjust your team after the group stages are finished. Avoid the group of death - Portugal, Germany and Holland all undoubtedly possess some of Europe’s finest talents. However, they are in a group which is likely to see even the best defenders concede goals, and the best forwards have their tallies limited by virtue of the competition. Even Denmark are a worthy side. Moreover, there are enough good teams for you to not have to bother including any of these players, who are unlikely to justify their huge price-tags with points in the former stage of the competition.

Choose two nations out of Czech Republic, Poland and Russia to back:

If Group B is the group of death, then Group A is the group of life. That doesn’t really work but you know what I mean. Personally, I would choose to include players from Poland and Russia. They both have strong teams, and Poland are at home. If you decide to go with Czech Republic, then I would suggest that their defense offers the most value. Petr Cech is solid in goal as we all know, and isn’t expensive at 5 mill. Michal Kadlec is also a risk which could pay off, the Bayer Laverkusen man is an attacking Left-Back and was his national team’s top goal-scorer in the qualifiers. He is also their penalty taker which helps.

From Poland, Lewandowski needs to be seriously considered. The Dortmund hitman is in the form of his life (30 goals and 8 assists in all competitions), and will be playing on his own up front in an ‘easy’ group. Blaszczykowski is another who might score you some points. His pace is unbelievable and if Lewandowski is firing, it is likely to be the man on the wing who is teeing him up.

Russia give you a few more options. Akinfeev and/or Zhirkov could very well get you your  clean sheets in group A. In terms of their attacking threat, any one of Pavlyuchenko, Arshavin or Kerzhakov can get you goals, but trying to guess who will score/start the most is tricky. What is far more certain is that most of Russia’s attacking threat will go through Dzagoev, and as such I think he represents a more consistent point scorer from the Ruskies.

Don’t Back Spain:

It’s about getting value off your tight budget, and the Spanish players are unlikely to give you a points return higher than their less coveted competitors. The Spanish don’t really have any strikers. Like the world cup - if they win, they probably won’t win big. Torres is obviously quite a risk, and Xavi and Iniesta are both 9.5 mill each. Even if the latter two do score you slightly more than midfielders from other nations, it is unlikely to make up the difference in cost you will be paying. Aside from this, I can actually see Spain flopping in this tournament by their standards (i.e. they won’t win it). In fact, I even think there’s a possibility they won’t top their group. No doubt this last prediction will come back to bite me in the face, but my previous comments are still sound - Spain probably won’t be worth the money.

So this leaves you with a choice of Italy, England and France in terms of possible high point scorers. It’s up to you whether you feel it wise to ‘bet against yourself’ and back two teams in the same group. Personally I feel that in the Euros this is pretty inevitable as almost every team is decent. One way you can avoid this problem is by not picking players who will necessarily deduct from the score of others in your team if they are to get points themselves. I.e. picking Benzema and Hart means that, at some point, for one to succeed the other has to fail.  Again though, this is only likely to happen in one of your players’ group games, and it’s up to you whether you feel the points certain players will score elsewhere in their fixtures will be enough to bypass this predicament.

If you’re going to go with England, I would suggest backing the defense and only the defense. Hodgson has made it clear that we aren’t going to set the world alight with goals aplenty, we are going to be solid at the back and hoof the ball up to the big man. That’s the plan anyway. A case can be made for Ashley Young, but i’d go for 1/2 of Hart, Terry, Cole and Cahill.

For France, I believe Benzema represents real value. The French have a good team, and will probably do well. Doing well means scoring goals. Scoring goals means that Benzema will probably get heaps of points. He will be playing on his own up front and has been on good form for Madrid of late. Other than him, we all know about Ribery and Nasri. Personally I feel like Ribery is too expensive at 9.5 (same price as Benzema - their lone striker). Nasri is also pricey at 8.5, and depending on how France play he might not pay his way. If they play through the wings Nasri may be in a less advanced role than he would be otherwise. I would perhaps suggest going for one of their defenders instead - Mexes, Evra or even Lloris in goal.

Here comes Nick’s outrageous outsider to win the whole thing. Last time I checked, Italy were 16-1 to win the Euros. That aint bad for an outside punt. Now hear me out.
1) Prandelli knows the Italian game inside out. He will play the Italian way, and if it works, it will work well. Moreover, he seems to have given Italy their mojo back.
2) Their team is basically Juve’s, and historically Italy do very well in these tournaments when this is the case.
3) Balotelli might turn up. Granted, ‘might’ is the operative word here, but he will be the target man up front and much of what Italy do will go through him. If he plays how we all know he can, he will succeed. He has Cassano behind him and Di Natale beside him, even I could get an assist somewhere in there.

So who do you back? Well, I’m a risk taker so I would go with Balotelli for much the same reasons as were given for Benzema. If Italy do well, he will be vital to their success, and I think Italy will do well, so I’m picking him. Cassano would also be a good shout, a lot of their attacking play will be crafted by the AC man. Top scorer in the qualifiers and heaps of assists for his club. Other than these two, I would also highly recommend involving Maggio in your team, for the same reason that I used to pick Fabio Grosso every time one of these tournaments came around. Like Grosso, Maggio is a relatively cheap defender who is basically a winger given the way Italy play. This means he gets you points for clean sheets and is likely to get you some assists as well.

The Bench:

Subs are really important in the McDonalds game. If you aren’t happy with the points tally of a certain player, you can swap him in for one of your subs who hasn’t yet played (provided it is within the same gameweek). This means that finding the odd underpriced gem is essential to success.

Mandzukic could well be one of these gems. He is only 6 million, and more importantly is categorised as a midfielder for Croatia. If he starts, and he probably will, he will be playing up front. Therefore I would suggest capitalising on this mistake. It basically allows you to have another striker in your team without using up one of your allotted slots.

Martin Olsson (Sweden) and Eugen Polanski (Poland) also represent great value for your subs bench. Both are 4 million, and are likely to start for their countries.

And there you have it. Not a comprehensive guide to success, but hopefully a point in the right direction. To be honest, as long as you don’t pick Stewart Downing, you should be ok.

Feel free to pit your wits against the Trequartistas by joining our league: code - 166718-45688.

Good luck!

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